Friday’s ECI print looks fishy

Yes, I’m a USD bull and yes, it sounds self-serving to question the ECI print, but the magnitude and the direction of the miss just seems off. Here’s an historical comparison b/w wage growth and the ECI. In theory, the monthly wage growth data should lead the quarterly ECI print. Even if the ECI print was correct, Q1’s ECI print must have ignored or discounted April’s large wage growth decline of 0.0%. May, June and July wage growth figures showed a strong rebound. Based on lag, we should see the May, June, July numbers more strongly impact Q3 ECI.Screen Shot 2015-08-03 at 8.52.43 AM

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