Short Oil Through 40, Target 37.55

Crude continues to lack support through $39 by simonsays452 on With no real support until the 50% fib retracement at 38.76 and consolidation zone support at 37.55, crude looks destined to continue lower. Options markets are pricing August expiry at 36.69 on the downside and crude volatility is breaking out of a quarterly downtrend. […]

Screen Shot 2016-05-05 at 3.49.19 PM

Earnings Options Play: $DATA

$DATA has a recent history of massively underpricing implied volatility! Heading into the last six earnings reports, $DATA options underpriced the next day move by an average of 50%! Talk about buying volatility at a discount!  Right now, $DATA options are pricing in a 13% move, down from a steady 18% move all week. I jumped into […]

Hedging a Dour Janet w/ Utilities

At last week’s FOMC meeting, Janet came out and – once again, moved the goalposts for FFR hikes. Markets reacted with a snap re-pricing of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets, with the notable exception of US equities. Since then, these moves have reversed and my “reflexivity trade” has played out very nicely as Fed speak has shifted markedly more hawkish than […]

Screen Shot 2016-03-22 at 8.50.54 AM

Back On The Oil Short

El-Badri deserves a hell of a lot of credit. He’s orchestrated a near doubling in oil prices without any substantive agreement, policy change or even a lie! Absolutely nothing has changed since November 2014: The Saudis still wants to assert dominance over Iran, maintain market-share and stick it to low-cost producers – er, US frackers All producers still want higher […]


Long Gold to 1300

Long Gold to 1300 by simonsays452 on Yes, I’m rather late to the party, but the price action looks great and the chart is screaming 1300. Recently, we’ve seen consolidation in the 1260 area and the yellow metal has broken out of a symmetrical triangle on the 4hr chart – after a nice fake-out […]


Quant Analysis: $SRPT

I like biotech stocks because of their asymmetrical risk and volatility. $SRPT – Biotech maker of, among other things, an experimental treatment for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). In short, a frameshift mutation on the X chromosome causes the disease, characterized by muscle degeneration and premature death in boys, usually before their 25th birthday. SRPT’s treatment, Eteplirsen, triggers excision of exon 51 […]