Hedging a Dour Janet w/ Utilities

At last week’s FOMC meeting, Janet came out and – once again, moved the goalposts for FFR hikes. Markets reacted with a snap re-pricing of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets, with the notable exception of US equities. Since then, these moves have reversed and my “reflexivity trade” has played out very nicely as Fed speak has shifted markedly more hawkish than […]

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Back On The Oil Short

El-Badri deserves a hell of a lot of credit. He’s orchestrated a near doubling in oil prices without any substantive agreement, policy change or even a lie! Absolutely nothing has changed since November 2014: The Saudis still wants to assert dominance over Iran, maintain market-share and stick it to low-cost producers – er, US frackers All producers still want higher […]


Politics aside, Soros’ principle of reflexivity is particularly appropriate given yesterday’s Fed statement. While the inaction on rates was expected and arguably maybe even “cautiously prudent” the commentary and downgraded projections were a sham! The Fed sees itself as the World’s central bank and its mandate as encompassing even-handedness with regards to foreign economies and […]


Long Gold to 1300

Long Gold to 1300 by simonsays452 on TradingView.com Yes, I’m rather late to the party, but the price action looks great and the chart is screaming 1300. Recently, we’ve seen consolidation in the 1260 area and the yellow metal has broken out of a symmetrical triangle on the 4hr chart – after a nice fake-out […]

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Oil Lower AND Banks Higher?

Just as I predicted, OPEC is not and never planned to cut production. It’s all political theatre and tape-bomb chaos! Oil will continue to head lower and as it does, we’ll continue to see fear grow about US banks’ exposure to energy defaults. Naimi reiterated Saudi’s strategy again yesterday in Houston: choking off high-cost producers […]

The Short Take: US CPI Should Run Hot

In short: I’m expecting CPI to run hot this morning. Buy USD, sell Euro and Yen, and sell stocks. The dollar should get a boost – the degree of strength will depend on the internals of the report, principally wages/benefits. We should see the EUR/USD cross sell off. Even with inline prints (-0.1% mom headline […]