NFP | Dec-16

Bullish /ES on strong jobs # and more bullish on tighter labor market, hrs worked and hourly earnings. Report will be stronger than expected on all fronts and the catalyst for resumption of dollar rally. Long /ES and short /6E.

The Donald

Basement Macro isn’t a platform to engage in political jousting. I’m interested in finding opportunities for investment/trading profits, pure and simple! So put your political persuasions aside and let’s try to make some money! As I have consistently opined – whether you love him or hate him, Donald Trump isn’t going anywhere! In fact, I still believe he’ll beat out Clinton – […]

Complacency ahead of FOMC

Good FOMC eve morning. Busy day today, so this one will be quick! Fed Funds Futures are pricing an 88% probability that the Fed will balk tomorrow. While I ultimately agree that the Fed won’t hike tomorrow, they’ll absolutely jawbone that they’re ready to do so.  That type of complacency is just the type of […]

Post NFP Thoughts

255k…nicely done! Given the volatility of the last two prints and moderately positive employment data in July, I expected a “hum ho” number, in line with consensus. 255k “feels” good and the market’s appears to have returned to a “good news is good news” psychology. That’s positive for risk assets in the immediate term. Going into […]

Short Oil Through 40, Target 37.55

Crude continues to lack support through $39 by simonsays452 on With no real support until the 50% fib retracement at 38.76 and consolidation zone support at 37.55, crude looks destined to continue lower. Options markets are pricing August expiry at 36.69 on the downside and crude volatility is breaking out of a quarterly downtrend. […]

$FB Vol Carry

Now that I’m settled into a new job in a new city and my gold short has been a total flop, let’s try to make some money! Next Wednesday, $FB reports. Today, we saw beautiful price action against an awful tape. What’s more, IV actually ticked down! Given post-Brexit’s face-ripping rally, options markets appear entirely lacking […]