Capitulation Alert: Bearish USD?

  NFP came in weak, as expected. On the release, $GC1! spiked, $DX1! dove and $ES1! tanked. Again, all par for expectations. That said, no sooner than 6 minutes after the release, $DX1! was already trading higher than pre-NFP. Could that be a signal of capitulation on the bearish dollar trade? Yes, that’s a gutsy […]

Screen Shot 2016-05-05 at 3.49.19 PM

Earnings Options Play: $DATA

$DATA has a recent history of massively underpricing implied volatility! Heading into the last six earnings reports, $DATA options underpriced the next day move by an average of 50%! Talk about buying volatility at a discount!  Right now, $DATA options are pricing in a 13% move, down from a steady 18% move all week. I jumped into […]

Screen Shot 2016-05-05 at 8.42.13 AM

Housing troubles to continue?

Despite lower raw material costs – for nearly all of 2016, housing (via $ITB and $XHB) has consistently underperformed the broader S&P 500. Year-to-date, housing related stocks ($XHB) are down 3.4% and homebuilders ($ITB) are down 3.0%. Is this weakness set to continue? The data says ‘yes!’ Demand is rolling over as yields are backing up and while supply […]