Trade Analysis of: “Hedging a Dour Janet w/ Utilities” Today, Janet stuck to her dovish guns and reiterated the Fed’s intention to remain cautious on raising the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) while it continues to monitor data from China – whoops, I mean the US! As predicted, the dollar took it on the chin with oil, gold and even […]
At last week’s FOMC meeting, Janet came out and – once again, moved the goalposts for FFR hikes. Markets reacted with a snap re-pricing of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets, with the notable exception of US equities. Since then, these moves have reversed and my “reflexivity trade” has played out very nicely as Fed speak has shifted markedly more hawkish than […]
El-Badri deserves a hell of a lot of credit. He’s orchestrated a near doubling in oil prices without any substantive agreement, policy change or even a lie! Absolutely nothing has changed since November 2014: The Saudis still wants to assert dominance over Iran, maintain market-share and stick it to low-cost producers – er, US frackers All producers still want higher […]
Politics aside, Soros’ principle of reflexivity is particularly appropriate given yesterday’s Fed statement. While the inaction on rates was expected and arguably maybe even “cautiously prudent” the commentary and downgraded projections were a sham! The Fed sees itself as the World’s central bank and its mandate as encompassing even-handedness with regards to foreign economies and […]
Ultimately, leaned on my correlation analysis saw SPX and crude rolling over and pulled my long calls and ultimately bought 1235 puts. The thesis is the metals rally has topped in the short-term.
Long Gold to 1300 by simonsays452 on TradingView.com Yes, I’m rather late to the party, but the price action looks great and the chart is screaming 1300. Recently, we’ve seen consolidation in the 1260 area and the yellow metal has broken out of a symmetrical triangle on the 4hr chart – after a nice fake-out […]