Month: February 2016
Oil Lower AND Banks Higher?
Just as I predicted, OPEC is not and never planned to cut production. It’s all political theatre and tape-bomb chaos! Oil will continue to head lower and as it does, we’ll continue to see fear grow about US banks’ exposure to energy defaults. Naimi reiterated Saudi’s strategy again yesterday in Houston: choking off high-cost producers […]
The Short Take: US CPI Should Run Hot
In short: I’m expecting CPI to run hot this morning. Buy USD, sell Euro and Yen, and sell stocks. The dollar should get a boost – the degree of strength will depend on the internals of the report, principally wages/benefits. We should see the EUR/USD cross sell off. Even with inline prints (-0.1% mom headline […]
/CL Option Expiry Alert: High Risk $30 Put Aversion
Today is options expiry for March 2016 Crude futures. I like to run a quick scan of open interest to see at what price levels traders have heavy conviction and to determine the degree of “dealer preference risk” that exists. Dealer Preference Risk Someone is on the other side of every options contract. Most of the time, […]