EURO BULLS BITE OFF WAY TOO MUCH. WATCH: 1.1090. TARGET: 1.1020 I expected a [i]modest retracement[/i] in Euro after the Fed’s “surprise” hawiksher statement, but certainly not a 100% retracement! Sell Euro! Sell Euro! Yes, the European macro data surprised – marginally so, to the upside, and yes, the US macro data has continued to disappoint. However, these are merely distractions. In the [i]immediate term[/i], […]


Again, I’m late to reposting this here. The timestamp and original post can be viewed here: DOLLAR BULL CASE STRONGER THAN EVER. TARGET: 100.30 I’ve been an unrelenting dollar bull (for better, and for worse) since two summers ago. The thesis has broadly been predicated on three things: (1) ECB QE (2) anticipation of […]

Euro: Ahead of The Fed

I’m late reposting this here from TradingView. You can see the timestamp and the original idea here: For continuity I’m re-posting here, as well. Will support keep a lid on Euro below 1.1080? Since Wednesday’s European open we’ve seen USD lag and Euro rise challenging Tuesday’s morning’s high of 1.1079. The important question is whether or not […]

Crude Update Ahead of FOMC

After crude’s swift descent and subsequent breach of my 42.75 target during Tuesday’s 10am hour – 9am, 10am and 2pm are truly magical hours for oil traders, I commented that I would watch for signs of a reversal and likely stay short up until the API print. Around 10:30am, we saw a spike lower in […]

Draghi gives all clear to resume Euro shorts

Yesterday, I posted this trade idea: long $HYG on further Q€/ECB easing expectations from Draghi, as an alternative/complementary Euro short. My seemingly-unending Euro short thesis is very simple: The ECB must expand QE and/or further ease monetary policy. We’ve seen: Decelerating economic data, led by Germany Abysmal and worsening inflation expectations Persistently stronger Euro (ECB is VERY keen […]