Bullish /ES on strong jobs # and more bullish on tighter labor market, hrs worked and hourly earnings. Report will be stronger than expected on all fronts and the catalyst for resumption of dollar rally. Long /ES and short /6E.

Forward guidance was introduced by the Fed in 2000. Yellen’s Fed has since used it as a license to give credence to all potentially possible global risks and in effect, “dove down” Fed inaction that could potentially be perceived as even the slightest bit hawkish. Today’s Fed presser was about as boring as it gets! […]

Draghi doubled down dovishly last week. Key quotes among his presser included: (1) Draghi: “To show that the ECB is going to stay in the markets, to show that it will continue to exert pressure on market prices, though we don’t want to distort them, of course.” Well, pretty sure they’re absolutely trying to distort prices, […]

Good FOMC eve morning. Busy day today, so this one will be quick! Fed Funds Futures are pricing an 88% probability that the Fed will balk tomorrow. While I ultimately agree that the Fed won’t hike tomorrow, they’ll absolutely jawbone that they’re ready to do so.  That type of complacency is just the type of […]

255k…nicely done! Given the volatility of the last two prints and moderately positive employment data in July, I expected a “hum ho” number, in line with consensus. 255k “feels” good and the market’s appears to have returned to a “good news is good news” psychology. That’s positive for risk assets in the immediate term. Going into […]

Now that I’m settled into a new job in a new city and my gold short has been a total flop, let’s try to make some money! Next Wednesday, $FB reports. Today, we saw beautiful price action against an awful tape. What’s more, IV actually ticked down! Given post-Brexit’s face-ripping rally, options markets appear entirely lacking […]