NFP | Dec-16
Bullish /ES on strong jobs # and more bullish on tighter labor market, hrs worked and hourly earnings. Report will be stronger than expected on all fronts and the catalyst for resumption of dollar rally. Long /ES and short /6E.
“Forward guidance” was a dovish tool
Forward guidance was introduced by the Fed in 2000. Yellen’s Fed has since used it as a license to give credence to all potentially possible global risks and in effect, “dove down” Fed inaction that could potentially be perceived as even the slightest bit hawkish. Today’s Fed presser was about as boring as it gets! […]
Dovish Draghi Doubles Down – Is policy divergence finally here?
Draghi doubled down dovishly last week. Key quotes among his presser included: (1) Draghi: “To show that the ECB is going to stay in the markets, to show that it will continue to exert pressure on market prices, though we don’t want to distort them, of course.” Well, pretty sure they’re absolutely trying to distort prices, […]
The Donald
Basement Macro isn’t a platform to engage in political jousting. I’m interested in finding opportunities for investment/trading profits, pure and simple! So put your political persuasions aside and let’s try to make some money! As I have consistently opined – whether you love him or hate him, Donald Trump isn’t going anywhere! In fact, I still believe he’ll beat out Clinton – […]
Complacency ahead of FOMC
Good FOMC eve morning. Busy day today, so this one will be quick! Fed Funds Futures are pricing an 88% probability that the Fed will balk tomorrow. While I ultimately agree that the Fed won’t hike tomorrow, they’ll absolutely jawbone that they’re ready to do so. That type of complacency is just the type of […]
Post NFP Thoughts
255k…nicely done! Given the volatility of the last two prints and moderately positive employment data in July, I expected a “hum ho” number, in line with consensus. 255k “feels” good and the market’s appears to have returned to a “good news is good news” psychology. That’s positive for risk assets in the immediate term. Going into […]
Short Oil Through 40, Target 37.55
Crude continues to lack support through $39 by simonsays452 on TradingView.com With no real support until the 50% fib retracement at 38.76 and consolidation zone support at 37.55, crude looks destined to continue lower. Options markets are pricing August expiry at 36.69 on the downside and crude volatility is breaking out of a quarterly downtrend. […]
$FB Vol Carry
Now that I’m settled into a new job in a new city and my gold short has been a total flop, let’s try to make some money! Next Wednesday, $FB reports. Today, we saw beautiful price action against an awful tape. What’s more, IV actually ticked down! Given post-Brexit’s face-ripping rally, options markets appear entirely lacking […]
Judgement Day: CPI, Building Permits/Housing Starts
Today at 8:30am we’re set to receive a data deluge – including CPI, building permits and housing starts, that will make or break the core thesis for my two largest trades: short Gold and short housing. Short Gold is a contrarian trade, based on the market’s unidirectional positioning and my belief that markets are missing the boat entirely […]